After the Fed is not give a signal for continued the QE2 to QE3 that to calm the import inflation in US like gasoline and food price even the macro economic indicator is no good for property price, unemployment tend to high in 9,1 % (maybe to 9.5 % or average on 9.25 %/year), business and consument sentiment tend to lower and overall manufacture is still slow to be more weaken. So that if the Fed in August still not give QE3 program that Ben Bernanke think deflation threat is no evident, but I forecast exactly US economic will gradually tend to enter the deflation. Influent of QE in shortterm have a good job to fight deflation by booster of commodities and food price that make US economy have high external inflation. This natural power that make a season system, where after summer season in bubble and overheating economy in initial 2004 – Q1 2007 and began enter the fall season in Q2 2007 – Q1 2009 with turbulencies by financial tsunami on bankers, securities, insurances and many real corporates and enter the winter season in mid 2009-2012/2013. The effect of low rate on carry trade to booster the financial markets like stocks index, commodities, economic growth and inflation impact is not to strong and significant but just only 35 - 50 % without money of QE. So the Fed don’t fight the Natural Law like the market motto don’t fight the Fed to rebound that fall season to be spring season on stimuli, QE, low rate, printing money and the Treasury want and want to eat the big debts. Don’t because tha nature can force you to be more deeply winter season that make more coolest condition in economic to be deeply Deflation condition, more you make artificial act,, the nature more force you down for long long Deflation period and more worse and long than Japan Deflation.
So, my “Monthly Prediction” for US growth is being to weak at 2,70 % in 2011, US$ be strong pair with EUR to low at 1.3850 on end of August-first October and if no more QE3, the US$ still still be strong to 1.3500 and began to rebound 1.4850. And the other pairs (GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/-JPY) will be follow the pattern time and fluctuation graphic, except for USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY that make a reverse pattern. And for gold after the QE fuel for high speculation is stop can be more weaken to the 1,400/troy oz and the strong support at 1,325/troy oz to be rebound at 1,375-1,400. George Soros have a good forecaster for that he sold his gold before and maybe buy again at 1,325-1,350. Also for oil is tend to weak, even war in Libya and the turmoil in Middle East will be continued, oil can goes to cover the gap at 84.0-86.0 and rebound again. Stocks market, especially for Dow Jones will be down to 11,625 on end of July-August and more down to 9,775-9,850 in October-November and began in December-January effect to be rebound again to 10,000-10,500. And
For investor and manufacturing corporate can arrange and managed this biocycle as a cycle or wave to be anticipated to avoid the risk and make you down to have many problems by turbulencies in the market if you don’t match this vision as a early warning system on Preventive Ways Life. And for trader follow the trend like you go surfing in nearish trend and you don’t fail and fall in big losses. Have a monthly life trading and investing to all of you guys. This is a sound of natural and supernatural music that must be aware of you and you can be a dirigent in your investing protofolio, in your team work of manufacture and service management professional system and traders will be a nice guys to do not make much turbulencies in crowded market to be chaostic behavior. Natural Law, like Gravity Power will push you more down, include to be catastrophic in Bubble Markets. I am a natural healthy life for everything with my method on Econobusiness Biocylce Dynamic for Preventive Ways but not the Medical Doctor for Cure or Economic and Financial Consultant to give you Problem Solving or Trouble Shooting that make you having big losses in money, time and work hard for long years success/profit but falling down just for shorttime big losses. And you must be reconstruction, recovery and refind the fund for debts and restructuring for your business again, its only waste your time and money anymore. Visit my blog, http://bioeconomic-natural.blogspot.com to find the good vision and solutions in Economic Manageable System that based on Natural Law and Power System.
So, you can know my based experiences to make my Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic method on various knowledge on Natural Driven with Bio-economic and Bio-natural scope as to see this below :
So, you can know my based experiences to make my Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic method on various knowledge on Natural Driven with Bio-economic and Bio-natural scope as to see this below :
*Bio-economic Forecast on Quarterly and Yearly Time Series based on Natural Driven*
By : Edmond F. La’lang (economic and environment observer)
Holistic approach driven to get the analyzed with some knowledge approach for how to synergism and synchronized to drawing the painting of the next curve will be happened in stocks, forex, commodities and real markets :
a. Bio-economic and Bio-natural Driven (Economic Bio-ritmic and Bio-cycle)
This method is to use biological means to know the performance of all systems including the economic field, where all economic actors are also creatures in the biological behavior is strongly influenced by biological and psychological nature. So will there was a dynamic and biological cycles and psikolgis the interplay within a national economy and global communities that make up a rhythm that can be monitored through the strains of the movement graph. Likewise we can study the behavior of subtropical birds moving north to south or vice versa in the change of seasons, or the movement of tuna by the influence of wind and water currents from the tropical to sub tropical or vice versa (Oyashiwa and Kuroshiwa) in the movement of the season and Jet Stream in the region equator and economic conditions based on the change of season 4 in the sub-tropics. Also Paul Ormerod wear behavior of the butterfly (Butterfly Economy) and ant to know the trend of economic conditions, and Newt Gingrich (U.S. senator) who use the system behavior simpanze to know the different behavior of political opponents to excel in politics. I used some biological method like Optimum Carrying Capacity, the Law of Deminishing Return, Environment Saturated Condition, Zigmoid Growth, Accelerators and Inhibitors Growth, Economic and Human Body Biology, Action Plan to aviod Disease, Risk and Problem with Preventive Ways as Early warning System, Bio-economic natural Life Cycle, etc.
b. Psychological Driven (Global Mass Psychology, Expectation and Activities )
Human is a biological creature that the which have psychologic aspects not be Able to measure and quantified by a mathematic economy parameters, Because its have a 2-3 formulas mathematic dimensions and meanwhile have only one dimension. Psychologic conditions like expectations, aspiration, dream, excite, wants, emotions (upset, angry, sad, etc), greed, confused, panic, afraid and the other various psychological aspects. This bio-economic will of personal and mass combined various national and global psychologic that will from seeing and reading by various ways of communications, gestures and words of businessman, Government Officials for comments of economic growth conditions, financial index, consumer price index and the form of graphics Global stocks, forex, commodities, obligations, bonds and many others. This combined of the above by instinct and intuitive ways, We can go globally to know-how what the will of some mass psychologic trustee or not toward the business performance of sectoral and general economic growth. And we can know be better, what will from some happens in the future, so that we able to avoid various problems in market risk, business risk, macro economic risk cans make the which turbulencies, crises and recessions That make a person, corporate and country will from some loss, failure and bankruptcy. Or according to George Soros, I will from walking in the front of the curve, That he will from a first take some positions for 6 months before without having a panic, sweats and big bath in the turbulencies, losses, crisis and recession is coming. The failure of government to handle this mass psychologic will from some potential to make a turbulencies and systemic effects like the tsunami or earth quake. So, why we do not have a early warning system and preventive ways to have a good and smooth conditions
c. Mozaik Topographyc Driven (Earth Mapping with Photograph and Water from Satellite Remote Sensing and Geo Positioning System / GPS).
An a geographic and mapping expert that use to streoskopic device with three dimension can see and know-contour ritmic of various height and place of a photograph on a map area or region. A geography and mapping using the tool streoskopis with 3-dimensional image can know the shape contour and rhythm of various heights from an aerial photograph of an area with a certain height and type of land use, such as settlements, rice fields, fields, ponds and forests. Who's sending a remote expert (remote sensing) to interpret a variety of images from the satellite image degradation and color mosaic to delineated which can read all the diversity of land use, condition hidroorologis and various mineral mineral content of a region With this expertise we can also see mosaic and strains the movement of various market indices well to predict the dynamics and movement of the rate of economic growth and business correctly and accurately so that we avoid the various risks of harm. Similarly, physicist (physics of Fessant economically and Tannous) can see the movement of business index stocks, forex, commodities, macroeconomic data to model seismic systems, electric cathode diode model, etc..
To know the direction of the trend of a graph of the rise and fall of a time series graph, so that when the momentum of rise or fall within a certain time. Similarly, George Soros can find various movements all business index method Reflections (condition exciting, self-reinforcing and catastrophic). GPS can be used to determine the existence of the position of a person or object on this earth. GPS systems also can be used basically to see how far psychological load, volume and size of transactions on a real market and finansil and direction of movement of the flow of funds / capital market of a region (country) to country with computerized systems that connect with satellites, such as satellites to monitor the movement of air flow / wind, rain, weather forecast, the movement of birds, fish, spores, virus diseases and even the human mind into all parts of the world to predict trends, action, result, potential fluctuations (turbulence) and the crisis with the method of early warning system are coordinated and systematic. So, we can know and read with appropriate mass psychological condition, the direction of the global mass movement and the desire to map its business plan.
d. Mechanical and Rockets System Driven
With mechanical science, we can know the moving of lintasan an bullet or rocket, where also like movement of global index in the market of stocks, forex, commodities, obligations, bonds, and the others that can be analyzed by mechanical and rocket systems. There are some of Japan expert in economy and market that have implemented rocket performance system to predicting various index in global market. An bullet and rocket if to fire with elevation sekitar 30 degree, so that will be fall more distance than more 30 degree and if to 90 degree will be fall not far from its fire or launched.
This is because the force of gravity will pull it back down before it reaches beyond the Earth's atmosphere, in the sense that if we want to ride fast with steep slopes, such as rock climbing mountain, then if the less powerful will cause us to fall quickly (free fall), exhausted and more severe consequences from a higher place than just fall from low altitude. With the shape the movement of the graph, then we can draw an imaginary line (as in space science and goniometrik / goniometry) to find out how long the form of graphs an index must be corrected or rapid collapse (catastroph) or the form of hang-cliff that if the mass of the moist soil , No binding tree, then the mass of soil from steep slopes will be prone to landslides (landslides) that can be fatal to the existing building and the people beneath him and hangs over the theory of economic growth means economic stagnation occur. For good combination that likely support by Fundamental Macro Economy and Technical Graphic Analysist on Time Series Graphs.
(visit my blog, http://bioeconomic-natural.blogspot.com)
And I invite you to join with me which makes you get big profit with www.instaforex.com and www.marketiva.com and etc.
And I invite you to join with me which makes you get big profit with www.instaforex.com and www.marketiva.com and etc.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar