By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)
There are some complains that economy science have been not be able to accurate predictions and in problem solving on various complex on economic problems, even since 1930 year that “The Great Deppression” happen until financial crisis on sub-prime mortgages and it derivatives in 2007 year. This crisis still exist and began to contaminated the European Economic Countries. Memang economic science still ableto predicted on economic activities is simple, closely and regional nature with bilateral trading systems. But with globalization, especially in financial sector on money, stocks, derivatives, commodities, treasury bills market and obligation markets, the economic knowledge will be not work accurately and good analyzes. That the same for economic planning have failure for raise up the public prosperity and find the good job and opportunity, included how to manage their debts, how to plan the developed sectors in priority scale to give the leveraging of economic growth quality for all peoples to get the prosperity level. According to Prof. Paul Ormerod that economic science have been dead and he will be give a solutions to used The Butterfly Economic Methods in forming of ants teamwork in groups and organization systems harmony to get their food and life.
For many economist this paper to remember on book of Paul Ormerod with topic “The Death of Economics”. It is maybe a signal that rapidly or slowly, Faculty of Economy will be disappear. But for myself this is no need for disappear if they want to see the this reality and began to adoption some of knowledge like biology (bio-economic), physical (econo-physic), chemistry, butterfly economic, medical, psychologic, social business management and economic natural based scope (eco-system like eco-nomy) into various of their formulas and technical analyzed method without very much involved in matemathic and statistical science (being dynamical science like aerodynamic, water dynamic and population dynamic) in their analyze predictions and find a good solutions on economic development vision in “Struggle for Life in the Forest” and not anymore in “Survival of the Fittest in the Jungle or Desert”). Also they must not used various assumptions that truly not a reality that will be happen. The econometrics still be good for the micro and private sectors for financial and accounting scope but if to enter the economic macro economy must be translated into various discipline sides
Adam Smith as a Father of Economic Science says that economy is a knowledge how to prosperity the peoples with always to keep the natural and outer space (astronomies) in harmony and synergic for the now and next generations. But economic science have to loose “soul” as foundation have create by Adam Smith, Keynes and David Ricardo as well Schumpeter. Economy science that the real is a knowledge to learn about human behavior which very complex, but now have been by pass with mathematics model that which very complex and frightening. But the Adam Smith economist follower can’t able to translated this formulas into the good methods, analyzes and economic decisions.
According to me, there are some big questions to economy science that not yet able to answer with complete and accurately like :
1. Economy science have not yet able to make accurately predicting for many economic macro indicators in monthly, quarterly and yearly and always must be revised.
2. Can not able to predicting many factors of internal and external risk, included in method of management risk, how to prevented and avoid from its systemic risk.
3. Why economics is just using mathematical and statistical science in perform a variety of macroeconomic indicators predict that it could not follow the dynamics of business economics, including the speed of technological change. And also build a variety of financial structures that are very vulnerable to the influence of economic turmoil, both in terms of its architecture and foundation building a variety of levels by simply manipulating and derivating mathematical calculation to establish a structure of financial derivatives very large, massive and widespread but very fragile on economic turbulencies effect.
4. Economics has not been able to cover a variety of social inequality, poverty, make income distribution as well as economic analysis appropriate environment to prevent environmental damage and social consequences various economic development activities in an integrated, effective and efficient.
5. In calculating the time, science is only wearing a variety of derivatives mathematic to predict the strains of the human dynamics of business economics with linier calculating (dimension 1) without entering aspects of cultural, social and psychological man who always want to progress and change with the dynamics of dimension 2-4.
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