Minggu, 27 Maret 2011

Assumptions dan Mathematic Linier Simulations

 By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)

            Economics has long stuck in the further utilization of science and mathematics to predict and make decision economic policy and began to ignore the various supporting science is actually very precise, such as social sciences, the science of psychology, biological sciences (pure and applied) and environmental science.

            Economy science have used various assumptions as parameter in calculated velocity of economic growth, macro indicators and factors that influences economic which often not representative and describe the real conditions that exist in local and global economy. Economist only simulated formulas derivative in mathematics which will examined by statistical method, like examined of honestly, deviation standard on data validations, calculated opportunities and pessimistic - optimistic scenarios, etc. in coordinate pattern structure which form a straight line as 1 dimension on many data points. So that the yield of economic methods only make a closed, simple, short and static in calculating, predicting, decision making, planning and acting in economic policies. This is not describe of the human dynamic aspects in conditions of biologic and psychologic aspects of human being as businessman, hope and basic needs of counsuments and producens for raw and aid materials, free market competitions and speculations, inventing and innovations technologies in generally was very complex nature and have 2 – 3 dimensions that being able to measure accurately by economic liner method which have low dimension and linieristic.
           Basically, first dimension (linier or straight line) will be dominated by second dimension (kwadratic line or area with X Y coordinate) and second dimension will be dominated by third dimension (space or volume with X Y Z coordinate), where human complexity as biologic, psychologic and social creature will be describe by third dimension. The first, second and third dimensions is arrangement and regulated by nature environments with Natural Laws and of course Human Laws. And finally third dimension will be dominated by fourth dimension (supernatural)  that arrangement and regulated by  Supernatural Laws from the Outer Space (Galaxy) and for in human religion is by The GOD from the Heaven. The third dimension many involved by pure biology, applied biology (medical, agriculture, fisheries, live stocks, forestry and biotechnology), philosophy, psychology, sociology, arts and music, feng sui and hong sui, included market financial (financial astronomy), information and communication technology and computerized systems like computer artificial intelligent, bio-hibrid and others. 

          Human live in earth will be influences by first until fourth dimension in form of physical and chemistry (first and second dimension), biological influences for growth since birth, kid, youth, mature, old and die which influence growth of physic, biologic and psychologic (mentality) according to their culyure development, education, spirit, prestation, social status as “Maslow Pyramide” to find and attain their needs and wants toward mental psychology and self actualization of personal and social group (3 dimensions) and living with harmony, obedient and peace in their religion (4 dimensions).  Closely, simple and linier of economic model theory of course is not able to anticipated and accurate predicting for midterm (monthly-yearly) and longterm (decades and century). Economy science can able to good predicted if in closely economy, monopolistic and simple without many external factor influences.  


          According to M. Dawam Raharjo (Cakrawala, Bisnis Indonesian News Paper) that economist have never consider culture factor to their economy formula. Whereas culture is a dynamic picture for growth, creative, grouping and organizing which appropriate with norms and customs in human life every day, depends on closely, static and conservative or openly, dyamic and modern that can be defined development rate of their nation, include economic sector.  Also, Alan Greenspan, economist popular and ex-officio Federal Reserve Board about Russian case after leaving their socialism system to being market capitalism that not able to develop their free market economy. But he is forget about China which being more develop so fast to be strong like USA in 2020, so he tells that “not nature at all, but culture”.   

         During this, he saw that the market is like nature, have certain laws, as economists generally view. This happens controversy in the formula and economic practices that would be purely linear. We think actually if economists incorporate the laws of nature, particularly biological it will clear the existence of a "certainty of natural law" because it naturally which makes the occurrence of a cycle of civilization (culture) human, including the economic cycle (recovery, prosperity and recession) in travel space and time. As the paragraph above that Adam Smith made basic economic theories based on natural law, but in applying the formula, the theory and practice has not implemented this idea Mr Economics. They currently just dwell on the mathematical formulas and statistics that are linear mere without including the various formulas and the reality of natural law, such as physics, chemistry and biology. Economists only lower (derivate which is now rampant in various forms of financial derivatives business) empirical mathematical formulas and assumptions - assumption of a linear expectation regardless of the natural law (dimensions 2-3) and supernatural law (dimension 4) that will always affect the cycle and cultural upheavals and human civilization, (including economics), which it clearly appears that economic development and technological development is often not friendly to the natural and social environments. So economists and technologists should rely more on Einstein's theory of relativity, E = mc2 to produce energy, profits, results and progress abundant (modernity) technology without having to sacrifice a lot of capital costs, losses (due to risk of economic cycles and shocks), waste of natural resources, social inequality and environmental destruction with the efficiency of m (mass) in less quantity, but increase the speed square (c2), and how to make the raw materials for semi-finished goods that not so much used the natural resources for our next seventh generations.  And finally not to make a damage the natural environments, because the environments can revenge us like earth quake, tsunami, volcano erupts, water flooding, land catastroph, extreme climate, blizzards, wind storm, global warming, pandemic diseases, economic crisis and recession and much more again.  So don’t kill the earth for just your greedy and selfish pleasure only.

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